News release from the Congressional Budget Office:

      CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 

   COST ESTIMATE

January 25, 2012

Geothermal Production Expansion Act of 2011 

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on December 15, 2011
S. 1149 would authorize the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to award leases for  certain federal lands on a noncompetitive basis for the development of geothermal resources. Based on information provided by BLM, the Department of Energy (DOE), and individuals working in the geothermal industry, CBO estimates that implementing the legislation would have no significant impact on the federal budget over the 2012-2022
period. Enacting S. 1149 could affect direct spending; therefore, pay-as-you-go procedures apply. However, CBO estimates that the net effect on direct spending would not be significant in any year. Enacting the legislation would not affect revenues.

S. 1149 would authorize BLM to offer noncompetitive leases of up to 640 acres for lands adjacent to known geothermal discoveries. Under the bill, a company that identified a geothermal resource that extended onto federal land adjacent to company-controlled lands could acquire the lease for a specified amount (bonus bid) determined by BLM to be equivalent to the fair market value rather than an amount determined through a competitive auction. In addition to paying fair market value for the parcel, the bill would require any company awarded such a noncompetitive lease to make annual rental payments equal to those required for lands that are leased competitively. Finally, a company could receive only one noncompetitive lease for each known geothermal discovery.  

Under current law, 75 percent of all receipts from bonus bids, rents, and royalties related to the development of geothermal resources on federal lands is paid to the states and counties in which those lands are located. The remaining 25 percent is deposited in the U.S. Treasury. CBO estimates that awarding noncompetitive leases for lands adjacent to known geothermal discoveries could reduce bonus bids on those parcels; however, because the legislation would require the companies that are awarded those leases to pay fair market value for them, we estimate that implementing the bill would not reduce the amount of receipts deposited in the U.S. Treasury by more than $500,000 in any year. 2

In addition, based on information provided by DOE and individuals working in the geothermal industry, CBO expects that implementing S. 1149 could increase receipts from royalties paid on geothermal energy production by reducing the amount of time it takes to develop a known geothermal resource and by reducing the likelihood that lands containing geothermal resources would be acquired for speculative purposes. CBO estimates that any increase in the amount of royalty receipts that would be deposited in the U.S. Treasury
would not exceed $500,000 in any year. Those amounts would offset any reduction in receipts from issuing noncompetitive leases under the bill. Thus, CBO estimates that implementing S. 1149 would have no significant net impact on direct spending over the 2012-2022 period.

The bill contains no intergovernmental or private-sector mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act and would impose no costs on state, local, or tribal governments.

The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Jeff LaFave. This estimate was approved by Theresa Gullo, Deputy Assistant Director for Budget Analysis.

From the U.S. Dept. of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL):

Lease Option Increases Rooftop Solar’s Appeal, Study Says Low Down Payment, Immediate Savings, Lure a New, Less Affluent Demographic Friday, January 20, 2012 Rooftop solar panels are attracting a new demographic of customers who are choosing to lease rather than buy, and enjoying the low upfront costs and immediate savings. The new third-party-lease business model lets homeowners save money the very first month, rather than breaking even a decade later after an initial investment of $10,000 or $20,000. Analysts with the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) found that the solar lease models are surging in southern California. And they're being adopted in less affluent neighborhoods that had few customer-owned systems. The NREL study, "The Transformation of Southern California's Residential Photovoltaics Market through Third-Party Ownership," is in the current edition of the journal Energy Policy. The study indicated an attraction for third-party leasing in neighborhoods with less affluence than those most likely to go for the customer-owned option. It found a positive correlation between customers outright buying solar energy systems and customers living in neighborhoods where the average household income was $150,000 or more. But with third-party-leased photovoltaic (PV) panels, that positive correlation appeared in neighborhoods where the average household income was just $100,000 or more. If what's true in southern California proves true for the nation, it means that rooftop solar power could prove tempting for an additional 13 million Americans who live in households that earn between $100,000 and $150,000 per year. "What is so interesting about the southern California data is that the strong decrease in PV prices – from lower retail costs and stronger federal incentives – didn't pick up a new demographic. But the new business model – leasing – did pick up a new customer demographic," NREL's Easan Drury, the lead author of the report, said. Repackaging the value of photovoltaics as a simple savings on the monthly bill is an attractive alternative to the pitch that it will pay for itself in a decade, he said. "If someone comes up to you and says you can make money next month and forever, that totally changes how people see the value of solar." Among Drury's other findings: Third-party leasing usually eliminates the need for home-equity-style financing and, thus, the need for significant equity in the home. Without the hurdle of financing, more people can adopt solar, Drury said.  Along with the lower income threshold, Drury found a surge in solar leasing in neighborhoods with younger families. In the Los Angeles and Orange county markets, customer-owned PV was five times more prevalent than third-party owned in 2009. In 2010, the ratio had dropped to 2 to 1. And for the first quarter of 2011, the ratio was almost even. Homeowners can put as little as $3,000 down and see an immediate drop in their electricity costs,  albeit that first year the drop may be just a couple dollars a month. The real benefits come over the next two decades, when the $40 or $50 per month they're paying to lease the solar panels stays constant, while, presumably, the cost of electricity goes up. Third-party companies are touting potential customer savings of $10,000 to $15,000 over two decades. NREL is the Department of Energy's primary national laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development. NREL is operated for DOE by The Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. ###